Lightspeed Commerce: Unveiling Three-Year Business Projections and Impact
At the Capital Markets Day held on March 26, 2025, Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (Lightspeed or the Company) shared its business outlook for the next three years. This Canadian-based company, which operates as a one-stop commerce platform for merchants, aims to provide the best omnichannel experiences, is expected to witness significant growth in its two primary engines – retail in North America and hospitality in Europe.
Gross Profit and Customer Location CAGR
Lightspeed anticipates a gross profit Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 20-25% for the retail segment in North America and 10-15% for the hospitality sector in Europe. With these growth engines, the consolidated gross profit CAGR is projected to be around 15-18%.
Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow
Additionally, the Company expects Adjusted EBITDA to reach approximately 20% of gross profit by Fiscal 2028. Furthermore, Free Cash Flow is projected to reach around $100 million in Fiscal 2028.
Share Repurchases
Lightspeed completed over $130 million in share repurchases during Fiscal 2025. The Company also authorized an additional share repurchase of up to $300 million, bringing the total authorized share repurchase to $430 million.
Impact on Consumers and the World
The growth projections for Lightspeed Commerce could lead to several positive impacts for consumers and the world at large. With the retail and hospitality sectors growing, merchants will have access to more advanced technology and tools to improve their businesses. This, in turn, could lead to better shopping experiences for consumers, including more personalized services and seamless omnichannel transactions.
Furthermore, the increased revenue and cash flow for Lightspeed could result in further investments in research and development, leading to even more innovative solutions for merchants and consumers. Additionally, the Company’s growth could create new jobs and contribute to economic growth in the regions where it operates.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Lightspeed Commerce’s three-year business projections indicate a promising future for the Company, its shareholders, and the merchants it serves. With significant growth in its retail and hospitality sectors, as well as increased Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow, Lightspeed is poised to make a positive impact on the shopping experiences of consumers and the economic landscape of the regions it operates in.
- Lightspeed Commerce projects a gross profit CAGR of 20-25% for retail in North America and 10-15% for hospitality in Europe.
- Consolidated gross profit CAGR is projected to be around 15-18%.
- Adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach approximately 20% of gross profit by Fiscal 2028.
- Free Cash Flow is projected to reach around $100 million in Fiscal 2028.
- Over $130 million in share repurchases were completed during Fiscal 2025, and an additional $300 million was authorized, bringing the total authorized share repurchase to $430 million.
- Impact on consumers and the world includes better shopping experiences, more personalized services, and economic growth.
