Raiffeisen Bank International: Trading at a Discount – Core Earnings Valued Below 6x

Austrian Bank Raiffeisen: Navigating Challenges and Delivering Strong Performance

In the ever-changing world of finance, one name that has been making headlines lately is Austrian bank Raiffeisen. The banking giant has shown remarkable resilience and impressive growth in recent times, driven by a robust core business and the potential end to geopolitical tensions.

Core Earnings Propelling Raiffeisen Higher

Raiffeisen’s strong performance can be attributed to its solid core earnings. Despite the challenges posed by the global economic climate, the bank has managed to maintain a steady growth trajectory. Its diverse business portfolio, which includes retail banking, corporate banking, and asset management, has helped it weather various storms and remain profitable.

Polish Legacy Mortgages: A Challenging Legacy

However, Raiffeisen’s journey to continued success has not been without hurdles. One significant issue that has weighed on the bank’s reported earnings is the legacy of Polish foreign currency mortgages. In the beginning of last year, provisions related to these mortgages came in much worse than anticipated, leading to a wider gap between reported and core earnings.

  • These mortgages were issued between 1997 and 2008, when the Polish złoty was pegged to the German mark.
  • With the onset of the global financial crisis, the peg was abandoned, causing the value of the złoty to depreciate significantly against the euro.
  • Many Polish borrowers, who had taken out mortgages denominated in foreign currency, found themselves struggling to repay their loans as their income was no longer sufficient.

The situation led to a wave of defaults and forced Raiffeisen, and other banks with significant exposure to these mortgages, to set aside substantial provisions to cover potential losses.

A Fading Issue: Narrowing the Gap

Fortunately, this issue is expected to begin fading in 2023. The Polish government has announced a plan to help borrowers refinance their mortgages, which should reduce the number of defaults and, in turn, narrow the gap between reported and core earnings for banks like Raiffeisen.

Implications for Individuals

For individuals, the situation at Raiffeisen may not have a direct impact. However, it is essential to keep an eye on the bank’s performance as part of a diversified investment portfolio. A strong showing from Raiffeisen could indicate a positive trend for the European banking sector as a whole.

Global Implications

On a larger scale, Raiffeisen’s performance and the resolution of the Polish mortgage issue could have significant implications for the global banking sector. A successful resolution could serve as a model for other countries dealing with similar legacy issues, potentially leading to a reduction in provisions and an increase in reported earnings for banks.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Austrian bank Raiffeisen has shown remarkable resilience in the face of various challenges, including the legacy of Polish foreign currency mortgages. With the potential end to this issue in sight, the bank is poised for continued growth and could serve as a bellwether for the European banking sector. For individuals, it is essential to keep an eye on Raiffeisen’s performance as part of a diversified investment portfolio. For the world, a successful resolution of this issue could lead to a reduction in provisions and an increase in reported earnings for banks dealing with similar legacy issues.

As we move forward, it will be fascinating to see how Raiffeisen and the European banking sector navigate the ever-changing financial landscape. Stay tuned for more updates on this developing story.

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