Former People’s Bank of China Director Predicts Two More Years of Property Downturn in China

Sheng Songcheng, the former director of the People’s Bank of China’s statistics and analysis department, recently made some grim predictions regarding the Chinese property market.

In a recent forum in Shanghai, Sheng Songcheng stated that the property downturn in China is likely to persist for two more years before beginning to regain stability. He estimated that new-home sales nationwide will shrink by another 50 million square meters in both 2024 and 2025. The annual total is expected to plateau around 850 million square meters during this time.

Despite the bleak outlook, Sheng Songcheng did mention that there were some ‘green shoots’ appearing in November. However, he cautioned that these signs of recovery may not be enough to offset the overall downward trend in the property market.

How Will This Affect Me?

As a homeowner or potential homebuyer in China, Sheng Songcheng’s predictions suggest that it may be wise to hold off on any major property investments in the near future. With the market expected to remain unstable for the next two years, it may be a good idea to wait for more favorable conditions before making any significant real estate purchases.

How Will This Affect the World?

China’s property market is closely linked to the global economy, and any significant downturn in the Chinese real estate sector could have far-reaching effects on the world economy. A prolonged period of instability in the Chinese property market could lead to a decrease in global demand for commodities such as steel and cement, impacting industries and countries that rely on Chinese imports.

Conclusion

Sheng Songcheng’s predictions regarding the Chinese property market paint a challenging picture for both local homeowners and the global economy. As we brace for two more years of downturn, it is important for individuals and governments to remain vigilant and adaptable to navigate the potential challenges that lie ahead.