Goldman Sachs on US Equities
The Worst Seasonal Equity Period
Goldman Sachs recently made a bold statement regarding US equities, suggesting that we are currently in the middle of the worst seasonal equity period of the year. According to their analysis, the median SPX return for the last 10 out of 11 days in September has historically been negative since 1928. This is certainly not a piece of optimistic news for investors looking to close out Q3 on a high note.
The Impact of September and October
With Monday being a holiday and the potential for a long weekend, lower trading volumes could further contribute to the negative trends seen in September. However, Goldman Sachs is hopeful that this dynamic will improve as we move into October, citing the NDX as an example of a potential turnaround in the market.
Clarifying the Holiday
For those confused about the mention of Monday being a holiday despite the New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, and Bond markets being open, it is important to note that not all holidays are observed by all markets. This can lead to discrepancies in trading volumes and overall market sentiment.
How Will This Affect Me?
As an individual investor, it is important to be aware of the historical trends and seasonal patterns that may impact your investment decisions. While September may not be the most favorable time for US equities, it is essential to approach the market with caution and consider long-term strategies to weather any potential downturns.
How Will This Affect the World?
On a global scale, the performance of US equities can have ripple effects across international markets. As the US economy plays a significant role in the global financial system, any major shifts in the US equities market can impact economies worldwide. It is crucial for investors and policymakers alike to monitor these developments and adapt accordingly.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while the current outlook for US equities may seem bleak in the short term, it is important to take a long-term perspective and consider the broader implications of market trends. By staying informed and making informed investment decisions, investors can navigate through challenging periods and position themselves for future growth and success.
